The Dataset

The data utilized for this analysis was sourced from https://coinmarketcap.com/ico-calendar/ended/. It encompasses a total of 983 ICOs conducted between January 2019 and October 2022.

As illustrated in the subsequent chart, most ICOs in this dataset occurred during 2021 and 2022, which is a crucial point for the interpretation of the data discussed herein.

ICO Prices

The following chart depicts the distribution of ICO prices—specifically, the prices at which tokens were sold at various phases of the funding process.

Notably, a majority of projects priced their tokens at only a few cents. Fewer than 10% set prices at or above one US dollar. This aligns with discussions I've had with various crypto project executives, many of whom indicated that lower pricing is often selected for psychological reasons. Many inexperienced investors mistakenly associate a lower ICO price with greater future growth potential. As we will see, this assumption is flawed.

ICO Funding Goals

Most projects aimed to raise up to $500,000, with a significant number setting targets at $1 million or more. Here are a few additional insights from the data:

On average, the funding goals set by projects in 2019, 2020, and, to a lesser degree, 2021 were considerably higher than those in 2022. Two main factors can explain this:

1. Since the bulk of the projects in the dataset are from 2021 and 2022, their higher numbers suppress the average funding goals for these years.
2. From 2019 to 2021, conditions for fundraising were more favorable than in 2022. Reports from the financial sector and startups indicate that acquiring startup capital became significantly more challenging in 2022.

ICO Performance After Public Listing — 1st Day

Now, let’s examine the core of this analysis: the performance of ICOs in the dataset on the first day following their public listing.

Median: 253% 1st quartile: 74% 3rd quartile: 766%

The data indicates that, on average, the crypto projects in the database experienced substantial price increases on their first day. However, the variance was considerable, with some projects witnessing gains of several thousand or even ten thousand percent.

ICO Performance After Public Listing — 365th Day

Note: Since the projects that launched in 2022 were less than 365 days old at the time of this analysis, I utilized the most recent price data.

One year later, the landscape looks quite different for most projects.

Median: -80% 1st quartile: -93% 3rd quartile: -15%

The majority of coins and tokens have seen a decline of 80% to 90% in value compared to their ICO prices. The situation appears even worse when considering the price from the first day of public listing, revealing a drop of more than 90% in most cases.

The chart below illustrates these trends.

ICO Performance Over Time

To better understand the evolution of individual projects, I tracked their performance at four key timestamps: the 1st, 10th, 60th, and 365th days. This is depicted in the chart below, which covers a representative sample of all ICOs.

The figures following the project names represent the percentage increases. However, this graphic somewhat obscures the numerous projects that have experienced negative performance over the year.

A notable observation is that for many new crypto projects, a significant sell-off by early investors begins within the first few days following their public listing. In some instances, the influx of retail investors during the initial two weeks causes a slight uptick in price, as evidenced by the mark on the 10th day. However, in nearly all cases, prices have dramatically decreased by the 60th day.

Takeaways for Investors

From these insights, several conclusions can be drawn for those looking to invest in ICOs or newly listed projects:

1. Investing in ICOs during the funding phase is often beneficial, leading to a substantial price increase upon public listing—assuming that market liquidity allows for selling within the initial days.
2. Those who purchase shortly after public listing may face significant losses within the first year. Simply put: buying new coins immediately after their listing often means providing exit liquidity for early investors.
3. This analysis reinforces other findings that indicate a majority of new projects ultimately fail.
4. Long-term investors should closely monitor Bitcoin’s broader market cycles. Projects launched in 2020 gained significantly during the 2021 bull market, while those introduced in 2022 are currently suffering in a bear market.
5. The size of funding goals has minimal influence on the subsequent performance of projects. Therefore, raising substantial funds during the ICO phase does not guarantee that the project will meet expectations.
6. The initial ICO price has little impact on the long-term success of individual projects.
7. My analysis shows that projects attempting to raise funds across multiple platforms often experienced some of the poorest long-term performance.

Interested in more cryptocurrency analyses? Check out my other articles:

• I Analyzed The ROIs of 1,600 Crypto ICOs - Here is What I Learned
• 40 Football Fan Tokens Price Analysis
• I Analyzed The Dilution Of 32 Cryptos. Hodlers Beware!
• I analyzed 200 DeFi Projects. Here Is What I Found Out.
• I Analyzed 120 Crypto Hacks. Here Is What I Learned
• I Analyzed 414 Crypto Airdrops. Are They Worth It?

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.

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