The Fallacy of AI-Related Visitor Decline

Recently, a report has circulated claiming that StackOverflow's traffic has fallen by 14% in March, attributing this drop to the influence of ChatGPT and GitHub Copilot. However, this decline predates the rise of AI technologies. It’s vital to analyze the data presented in the report before drawing conclusions.

One major issue with the article is its characterization of StackOverflow as a "message board." In reality, StackOverflow is a dedicated question-and-answer platform. This raises questions about the article's credibility and its commitment to defending its main argument.

Curiously, the report presents StackOverflow's metrics on a year-over-year basis in percentage terms, while conversely discussing GitHub Copilot and ChatGPT in terms of absolute visitor counts on a monthly basis. This inconsistency makes direct comparisons misleading, hinting at potential flaws in the analysis.

The initial chart presented is particularly perplexing:

The data shows a nearly vertical spike for ChatGPT, a rise in GitHub visits, and… a slight uptick in StackOverflow traffic? This contradicts the claim that StackOverflow is losing visitors.

Upon closer inspection of StackOverflow's data:

The graph indicates a relatively stable trend, with a notable increase in March 2023. So, where is the actual decline?

Examining a subsequent chart:

This chart seems to argue that StackOverflow is indeed losing users, supposedly due to ChatGPT. Yet, as the article progresses, it suggests that the decline is due to AI in general, not just ChatGPT. This shift in narrative is intriguing since the title initially focused on ChatGPT.

Let’s scrutinize this segment of the chart:

This section emphasizes year-over-year data. It's essential to note this segment:

Here, it becomes evident that the comparisons are flawed, as they juxtapose visits to a repository hosting service with a Q&A platform. This apples-to-oranges comparison undermines the article's thesis.

Additionally, another chart indicates that the decline in visits began in January 2022, well before GitHub Copilot was launched in June 2022 and ChatGPT's rise in popularity in December 2022:

Thus, the decline observed in StackOverflow's visits cannot be attributed to these AI tools, as they were introduced much later. Furthermore, adoption takes time, and many factors could influence this decline, including the lack of evidence that visitors to ChatGPT are primarily developers.

The core question remains: why is StackOverflow experiencing a decline? Two potential explanations stand out:

1. Knowledge Retention: With the rapid development in IT, many new developers visited StackOverflow to learn, but once they acquire knowledge, they may not return as frequently.
2. Competitive Alternatives: An increasing number of websites aggregate StackOverflow content, often appearing in Google search results, diverting traffic away from the platform.

Both reasons seem plausible and are tied to broader trends in the tech industry that have been evolving for years.

These are merely hypotheses that require further data to validate. A comprehensive report establishing a causal link between AI and the decline in StackOverflow visits would be beneficial, but none currently exist.

What we see instead is another instance of attributing various issues to AI, similar to claims that layoffs are a result of AI advancements. The economic shifts influencing the current climate have been developing long before AI became a focal point. I believe that these ongoing economic changes are the actual contributors to the declines we've observed in StackOverflow over the years.

So, do you utilize ChatGPT or GitHub Copilot? Have you integrated them into your daily routine? I’d love to hear your experiences!