COVID-19 Vaccines: A Misunderstood Lifesaver
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The COVID-19 vaccines have proven to be remarkably effective. Within just a year of the pandemic's onset, scientists created vaccines that significantly reduced mortality from the virus, while also showing positive effects on infection rates and transmission. Initially, the standard for a successful vaccine was set at a 50% reduction in diagnosed cases, and the vaccines developed far exceeded that expectation.
Recently, however, a wave of headlines has emerged suggesting that these vaccines might be linked to increased mortality globally. Various reports claim new studies indicate that COVID-19 vaccines are associated with a higher death rate than the virus itself, contradicting the multitude of studies that affirm the vaccines' life-saving benefits.
Fortunately, the assertion that COVID-19 vaccines led to excess deaths is based on flawed science. Data indicates that these vaccines have saved an immense number of lives.
Study Overview
The study at the center of this controversy was published in the British Medical Journal: Public Health. The authors analyzed data from the Our World In Data COVID-19 dashboard concerning excess deaths in a selection of "Western" nations during 2020, 2021, and 2022. They noted that excess mortality peaked in 2021 and 2022, using this observation to suggest that COVID-19 was not responsible for the deaths; instead, they implied that vaccines and other interventions might be culpable:
> “At a global level, the prevaccination Infection Fatality Rate was 0.03% for individuals under 60 years and 0.07% for those under 70 years. For children aged 0–19 years, the Infection Fatality Rate was set at 0.0003%. This indicates that children are infrequently affected by the COVID-19 virus. In 2021, despite the introduction of both containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines, the highest number of excess deaths was recorded: 1,256,942 excess deaths (P-score 13.8%).”
> “The next step involves differentiating among the various factors contributing to excess mortality, including COVID-19 infections, indirect effects of containment measures, and COVID-19 vaccination programs.”
The authors also suggested that the higher excess deaths in 2020 compared to 2022 indicated that restrictions were either ineffective or harmful, as many regions had restrictions in 2020 but not in 2022.
The paper is rife with errors. Firstly, it doesn't present new research; rather, it relies on existing data, primarily sourced from the World Mortality Dataset by researchers Ariel Karlinsky and Dmitry Kobak, misrepresenting it as original research. This new paper appears to be a poorly constructed commentary rather than legitimate research.
Additionally, the term "Western" used by the authors is outdated and lacks clarity. They define "Western" as countries in Europe and parts of Australasia and North America, a classification that seems antiquated in this era. This definition is supported by a dubious source known for advertising rather than scientific credibility.
The situation worsens. The authors imply that COVID-19 did not cause excess mortality and suggest that vaccines and mitigation measures were likely responsible. Had they thoroughly examined the World Mortality Dataset, they would have found strong evidence contradicting their claims. The data reveals a strong correlation between excess deaths and COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
While this correlation does not definitively prove that COVID-19 was solely responsible for all excess mortality since 2020, it strongly suggests that the majority of these deaths were related to the virus. National authorities have conducted extensive investigations linking COVID-19 directly to these fatalities.
Conversely, the same data shows little to no correlation between vaccination campaigns and excess mortality, except during active COVID-19 waves. In fact, the authors' own visual representations of excess deaths illustrate that in Australia, where vaccination efforts ramped up, excess deaths remained low until a significant outbreak occurred in late 2021.
Even more concerning is the fact that this recent study, published in 2024, only includes data up to the end of 2022, leaving out crucial information from 2023, a year that saw significantly reduced excess deaths compared to 2022 despite similar vaccination rates.
Vaccines Are Life-Savers
The conclusion is clear: COVID-19 vaccines have saved countless lives. This is not merely an opinion; it is a well-documented fact supported by substantial evidence. While there have been some rare vaccine-related deaths, they pale in comparison to the millions of lives saved by these vaccines.
The BMJ Public Health paper at the center of this debate is fundamentally flawed, displaying a multitude of basic errors that raise questions about its publication. The journal has since issued a statement clarifying that the paper does not claim vaccines caused excess deaths, which raises concerns about how such misleading claims were permitted in the first place.
Moreover, the statement asserts:
> “The message of the research is that understanding overall excess mortality since the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for future health policy, but identifying specific causes is complex due to varying national data quality and reporting methods.”
This assertion is misleading. The World Mortality Dataset, the basis for the data in the study, clearly indicates that excess mortality during the pandemic was primarily due to COVID-19 itself. Notably, the research by Karlinsky and Kobak demonstrated that COVID-19 restrictions were associated with negative short-term excess mortality.
Despite the complexities of implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions, there is solid evidence suggesting they did not contribute to excess deaths. The overwhelming conclusion remains: COVID-19 vaccines have saved lives, while the majority of excess deaths during the pandemic were caused by the virus itself.