Understanding the Fine Line Between Certainty and Correctness
Written on
Chapter 1: The Illusion of Certainty
It’s often straightforward to recognize stubbornness in others, particularly when they hold a firm disagreement with our views. The most irritating individuals are those who tenaciously defend their stances despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. It's perplexing that they seem oblivious to how their unwavering certainty might reflect poorly on them.
Even though we frequently observe this behavior in others, we rarely connect it to our own tendencies. When we are resolute in our beliefs, we tend to think we are justified, whereas we view others who share the same certainty as misguided.
For a deeper dive into this topic, check out the following resources:
Partially Examined Life #309: Wittgenstein On Certainty (Part One) - This video explores the nature of certainty and its implications on our understanding of truth.
Section 1.1: The Fallibility of Human Judgment
While it’s conceivable that a few individuals possess an extraordinary ability to always make correct judgments, the reality is that such people are exceedingly rare. Most of us, including you and I, are likely not among this select group.
Consider the dynamics of marriage: one quickly learns that no one is right all the time. Reflect on all the occasions when your partner has gently corrected you; these moments underscore a universal truth about human fallibility.
Subsection 1.1.1: The Pitfalls of Certainty
When we are certain of our correctness, we often face several significant challenges:
- We become resistant to new information and tend to favor evidence that supports our pre-existing beliefs, a phenomenon known as confirmation bias.
- Our decision-making deteriorates as we neglect to seek out contradictory information.
- To rationalize poor choices, we often shift the blame onto external factors or other individuals.
I’ve been fortunate to have friends and family who point out my many mistakes consistently. Despite their efforts, my conviction in my beliefs often remains unchanged. When we believe we are right, it can be hard to accept any contrary evidence.
Section 1.2: Embracing Uncertainty
Recognizing the dangers of certainty, is there a way to mitigate its effects? Personally, the frequent reminders of my own fallibility have led me to adopt a valuable practice: I consciously allow room for the possibility that I might be mistaken.
While I still hold my beliefs close, I often append the phrase “but I could be wrong” to my assertions. This simple addition is transformative. Here’s why:
- It signals to your own mind that you’re not absolutely committed to the truth of your statement, which opens you up to listening to others.
- It indicates to your conversation partner that you are open-minded, fostering a dialogue where both parties are eager to learn.
- Because you are less emotionally invested in your statement, you are less likely to feel defensive when challenged. If your statement is merely a discussion point, an attack on it doesn’t feel like a personal affront.
If you find value in the idea that certainty does not guarantee correctness, you are already on the path to improved decision-making. If you further appreciate the power of small, consistent changes leading to significant outcomes, consider incorporating the phrase “But I could be wrong” into your conversations.
Take care, and remember: I have my biases and may be mistaken. However, I believe you will gain valuable insights by subscribing to read more of my reflections.
Chapter 2: The Nature of Certainty
Partially Examined Life #309: Wittgenstein On Certainty (Part Two) - This continuation further examines the complexities surrounding our understanding of certainty.