The Forecast

Summary: Projections indicate that infections in the U.S. could rise from approximately 30 million to 60 million, with fatalities ranging from 100,000 to 200,000. While recent data show a decline in infections, I anticipate daily deaths will drop below 300 by the end of June.

However, counting those who died "with Covid" rather than "from Covid" could show a much higher number—potentially over 800 deaths per day for an extended period. For instance, if 10% of the population is infected and the average daily death rate is 8,000, we can expect at least 10% of those deaths to be attributed to Covid. It’s crucial to differentiate between deaths caused directly by the virus.

Note: The 10% example is simplified but illustrates the need for accurate data on "by Covid" versus "with Covid," especially since a significant portion of the population has been infected and continues to be exposed.

Infections: Similar to the H1N1 outbreak in 2009, we can expect around 1.5 billion people to be infected globally, with at least 60 million in the U.S. There is ongoing debate about the extent of infections, with estimates ranging from 15-20% of the population to as high as 70-90%. Based on available data, I predict that around 20% (+/-5%) of the population will ultimately be infected.

Fatalities: Current estimates suggest a fatality rate of about 0.3%, leading to projections of approximately 4.5 million deaths worldwide and around 200,000 in the U.S. We will only fully understand the incremental impact once comprehensive studies on comorbidities are conducted.

How do we know this?

1. The CDC is tracking multiple forecasts, with fatalities projected between 130,000 and 200,000 in the U.S. Their latest estimate for the fatality rate is 0.26%.
2. Seroprevalence studies indicate a fatality rate of around 0.3%, with infection rates varying from 2% to 20% in different communities.
3. The Diamond Princess Cruise and New York City data showed infection rates peaking around 20-30%.
4. The SEIR model utilized by epidemiologists helps project expected outcomes based on known data, indicating we should have around 30 million infections by now.

While these estimates may not be definitive, they provide a clearer understanding of fatality rates and current infection levels. The unpredictable factor remains the overall percentage of the population that will eventually contract the virus before the pandemic recedes.

Risk & Fatality — Understanding Personal Risk

It's essential to recognize that there is no single fatality rate; your risk varies primarily based on age and pre-existing health conditions. Epidemiologists typically adjust age-based rates to fit population demographics for a more accurate overall estimate.

For instance, aboard the Diamond Princess Cruise, the fatality rate was around 1.8%, but with 60% of passengers over 60, adjusting for age suggests a more accurate fatality rate of approximately 0.6%.

In my model, fatality rates by age group show that individuals under 9 years old have virtually no risk, while those aged 80 and older face about a 2.5% risk upon infection.

Understanding personal risk is crucial. For example, my own risk of dying from Covid-19 is approximately 0.02% if infected, which leads me to believe that there's no reason for me to alter my behavior significantly, aside from protecting vulnerable individuals.

In summary, while Covid-19 poses a serious threat, especially to older adults, most people are statistically more likely to die from other causes this year.

Data Accuracy — Assessing Death Counts

To understand fatalities, we must first clarify what we're measuring. There are three main data points: Cases, Hospitalizations, and Fatalities.

• Cases: This metric includes positive tests, probable cases, and is reported differently across states. Estimates suggest we are only capturing 5-10% of actual infections.
• Hospitalizations: Only about 10% of hospitals report data to the CDC. This data is crucial for understanding trends and predicting healthcare capacity.
• Fatalities: Misclassification can lead to over-counting, such as including deaths from unrelated causes in Covid counts.

We need a thorough post-mortem analysis to accurately assess the impact of the pandemic and our response. The long-term effects on healthcare, economy, and overall mortality rates will likely take years to fully understand.

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, while the Covid-19 pandemic is indeed a global tragedy, it's essential to recognize that it may not be as catastrophic as initially feared—particularly for younger populations. We must remain vigilant but not fearful, focusing on data-driven responses rather than panic.

As we move forward, it's crucial to learn from our experiences and ensure that future responses to pandemics are informed by robust, non-partisan analyses of what strategies worked best.

For further insights and data, please refer to the sources at the bottom of the summary article, Part 1.