Exploring the Influence of Luck on Success and Self-Belief
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How belief in luck empowers us to take risks and perform better.
Richard Branson often claims to be a fortunate individual, both in his business endeavors and personal life.
An adventurous spirit, he has encountered several life-threatening situations, including a shipwreck in the early 1970s, where he and his then-wife survived by leaping into turbulent waters and swimming to safety while others perished.
His recording studio, Virgin Records, debuted with the album “Tubular Bells” by Mike Oldfield, which gained fame as the theme for The Exorcist and has sold close to 20 million copies.
Branson made a daring transition from Virgin Records to launching Virgin Atlantic, an airline so audacious that his bank threatened to pull funding. In 2023, the airline achieved remarkable revenue of £3.1 billion.
In a 2014 interview regarding the significance of luck in establishing a successful business, Branson stated:
I believe luck definitely plays a role, as many hardworking individuals do not find success. However, the saying goes that by working diligently and making astute decisions, one can create their own luck. I consider myself fortunate to have survived various risky adventures, so I must have been born under a lucky star.
Branson’s perspective on luck is echoed by numerous other highly successful individuals.
But is it truly luck that propels their success? Some argue that luck is a mere illusion. What about traits like entrepreneurship (Branson started his first business at 16), resilience in adversity, and vision?
What is the actual influence of luck on success, and who gets to claim it?
The Science of Luck
Research indicates that the key question isn’t whether luck exists, but rather whether one believes in it.
A study in 2014 by James Sly at Missouri State University investigated how belief in luck affects self-efficacy, which is the confidence in one’s ability to control personal motivation, behavior, and environment.
The study found that believing in one’s capacity to achieve goals significantly impacts how individuals approach challenges.
In this research, 171 students filled out three questionnaires:
- To assess their existing belief in superstition;
- To evaluate their belief in luck and their own luckiness;
- To gauge their perceived sense of agency in their lives.
Participants were then tasked with predicting the outcome of 30 computer-generated coin flips, choosing heads or tails.
After each flip, they received misleading feedback on their performance, meaning their guesses had no effect on the actual results.
The software ensured each participant won exactly half of the coin tosses, making everyone equally “lucky.”
However, the type of feedback varied among groups:
- Ascending: Participants were told they correctly predicted 5 of the first 15 flips, improving to 10 of the last 15.
- Descending: Participants started strong with 10 correct predictions but finished with only 5 correct.
- Random: Feedback was given without a discernible pattern.
Following the experiment, participants were asked:
- How many of the 30 flips they thought they correctly predicted;
- How many they believed they would predict correctly in another set of 30.
Next, they engaged in a challenging word puzzle, identifying as many words as possible from a set of eight letters, setting goals for their performance prior to starting.
The findings revealed that those who strongly believed in luck and received descending feedback recalled more of their correct predictions compared to those in the random and ascending feedback groups.
Additionally, individuals with a high belief in luck and descending feedback set more ambitious goals for the word puzzle and invested more time into the task than those with random feedback.
Researchers concluded that a lucky streak in one task boosts self-efficacy in an unrelated task, even if the luck is short-lived, as seen in the descending feedback group.
Thus, contrary to intuition, the study indicates that believing in luck enhances confidence in influencing future outcomes. If one perceives past success as a result of luck, they are more likely to persist in the face of challenges.
How “Feeling Lucky” Gives You an Edge
Feeling lucky alters our self-perception and may enhance performance, according to various studies.
One study revealed that superstitious beliefs can help alleviate anxiety in uncertain situations. Another indicated that such beliefs or rituals can enhance self-efficacy.
For instance, a soccer player anxious about a significant game might believe that wearing his lucky socks will boost his confidence and perceived control over his performance.
It’s important to note that these studies do not assert that luck is real; rather, they demonstrate that those who believe in luck often experience heightened self-efficacy, potentially leading to better outcomes.
While the earlier study showed that believers in luck improved their self-efficacy in a puzzle task after a lucky coin toss, it also noted that non-believers who experienced good fortune saw a decline in self-efficacy.
This phenomenon is explained by the gambler's fallacy, where individuals with low belief in luck expect bad luck to follow good luck, despite the randomness of the situation.
Ironically, Sly pointed out that those who rationally reject superstitious beliefs are often engaging in a form of superstition themselves, just in the opposite direction.
Overall, individuals who consider themselves lucky tend to approach new tasks and challenges with greater confidence due to elevated expectations of positive outcomes.
This certainly applies to Branson, who stated, “You have to take risks sometimes. You must make bold moves, even if it means risking everything.”
Branson recounted that he once took out a third mortgage on his home to fund his business ventures, asserting that significant opportunities warrant substantial risks. “If something is crucial, you should be willing to bet the house,” he remarked. “There are far more important things to gamble on.”
Had Branson lacked a sense of luck, he might not have ventured into the complex airline industry or pursued numerous other endeavors.
Taking Luck Too Far
However, there’s a risk of depending on luck to the extent that one relinquishes control over their destiny.
Research shows that self-efficacy and locus of control are interconnected and influence how individuals respond to situations.
Those with an internal locus of control believe their choices and efforts largely shape their lives. They typically exhibit higher self-efficacy, viewing themselves as the primary agents of their successes.
Conversely, individuals with an external locus of control attribute their life events to outside forces—fate, circumstances, luck—which can diminish their self-efficacy.
A person’s locus of control is crucial in determining life outcomes. An internal locus is linked to psychological well-being and success in both academic and professional realms.
Both internal and external loci of control have their advantages and disadvantages.
For example, individuals with an internal locus may struggle with delegation and often engage in self-blame when facing setbacks.
On the other hand, those with an external locus may find it easier to let go of control but could also feel demotivated or helpless when outcomes seem beyond their influence.
The key is to strike a balance—maintaining an external locus for uncontrollable factors while adopting an internal locus for aspects within one’s control. Over-relying on luck skews this balance excessively towards externality.
We do not inhabit the fantasy realm of Harry Potter, who could simply sip a potion of luck to achieve his goals. Merely believing in luck won’t suffice.
Nevertheless, having faith in luck can serve as a powerful motivator and boost confidence, encouraging a positive approach to challenges, which may lead to improved performance.
Just ask Richard Branson.
Harness the power of belief, work diligently, and forge your own luck.
Nir Eyal, a former lecturer at Stanford, is the bestselling author of Hooked: How to Build Habit-Forming Products and Indistractable: How to Control Your Attention and Choose Your Life.
Indistractable has received numerous accolades and was named one of Amazon's Best Books of the Year.
BONUS: Nir offers a free Indistractable workbook on his blog, NirAndFar.com.
