The Current State of Affairs

The gravity of our situation should be glaringly obvious to anyone keeping up with current events. Projections for 2023 suggest it will be the hottest year on record, and based on the El Niño phenomenon, 2024 could follow suit with even higher temperatures.

For those in search of expert evaluations, "The 2023 State of the Climate Report: Entering Uncharted Territory" provides a concise overview:

Global daily mean temperatures had never surpassed 1.5°C above preindustrial levels before 2000, and they have only occasionally done so since. Yet, by September 12, 2023, we had already recorded 38 days where global averages exceeded this critical threshold—more than any previous year, with the potential for this number to continue climbing. The report also catalogs numerous weather-related disasters, including floods, wildfires, and heatwaves.

Finding the right words to articulate the severity of this situation is increasingly challenging, but researcher Zeke Hausfather’s post on September 2023 temperature anomalies provides insight:

"This month was, in my professional opinion as a climate scientist—absolutely astonishing."

While it's clear that the situation will worsen under a business-as-usual scenario, new studies suggest our current dismal forecasts may be overly optimistic.

Video Description: This video explores how climate change is impacting us and offers strategies for coping with its effects.

Underestimating Feedback Loops

Recent research indicates that climate models may have downplayed the impact of positive feedback loops that exacerbate global warming. These feedback loops, triggered by human greenhouse gas emissions, can perpetuate warming even if we halt our emissions.

These feedback mechanisms include melting permafrost releasing methane and CO2, wildfires emitting carbon, and ice-free oceans absorbing heat instead of reflecting it. The report highlights a concerning possibility:

"In the worst-case long-term scenario, interactions among feedback loops could lead to an irreversible shift away from the current climate, threatening the habitability of our planet for humans and other life forms."

If these self-reinforcing feedbacks dominate global warming, the implications are severe—welcome to a hothouse Earth.

The Sensitivity of Climate to Greenhouse Gases

In 1988, climate science pioneer James Hansen warned Congress that human emissions were warming the planet and that urgent action was necessary. Although his calls went largely unheeded, he has continued his work and recently co-authored a study arguing that climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases may be greater than current models suggest.

Climate sensitivity refers to the anticipated temperature increase for every doubling of atmospheric CO2. If estimates have indeed been too conservative, we could face more severe warming than anticipated.

According to this research, the equilibrium global warming for current greenhouse gas levels is projected to be 10°C, reduced to 8°C by existing human-made aerosols. An 8°C increase is catastrophic for human civilization, though the study does not claim this is an immediate forecast. Nonetheless, the report warns:

“Under the current geopolitical approach to greenhouse gas emissions, global warming is expected to exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and reach 2°C before 2050.”

This trajectory threatens unprecedented chaos unless we act without delay.

The Current Landscape of Climate Action

The prevailing view among climate scientists is that achieving the target of limiting global heating to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is virtually impossible. Even the less ambitious goal of 2°C appears increasingly unattainable.

The Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 has proven ineffective, as virtually no nations are meeting their greenhouse gas reduction targets. While there have been advancements in renewable energy, our energy consumption is rising even faster.

Consequently, governments and fossil fuel companies are intensifying efforts to extract and utilize coal, oil, and gas, further increasing greenhouse gas emissions. For instance, US President Joe Biden, who is perceived as climate-friendly, recently approved the controversial Willow oil-drilling project in Alaska, labeled a "carbon bomb" by opponents. Meanwhile, China continues to ramp up coal production and imports without any signs of stopping.

The urgency of the situation is such that some researchers now advocate for geo-engineering solutions—like injecting sulfur or other materials into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight. While this concept has been discussed for years, it has never been executed, largely due to uncertainties regarding potential negative consequences. The fact that credible scientists are now endorsing it underscores the precarious state we find ourselves in.

What Lies Ahead?

If left unchecked, future climate disasters will dwarf today's floods and wildfires. To clarify: without a significant turnaround, societal collapse could occur before the middle of the century.

We can no longer afford a slow, gradual approach. Immediate and transformative action is essential across global energy, transportation, and food production systems. We must also fundamentally change our economic mindset, moving away from wasteful lifestyles and the obsession with endless growth that has characterized our society for decades.

Sadly, governments show little interest in undertaking such efforts, and the electorate is not demanding it. However, it is too late for anything less than radical change if we wish to survive as a civilization.

Video Description: This video discusses the potential catastrophic impacts of the climate crisis, projecting that it could lead to the loss of six to nine billion lives if left unaddressed.