The Changing Landscape of the Spec Script Market
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Chapter 1: Overview of Spec Script Trends
The spec script market has faced significant challenges in recent years. Let’s dive into the numbers and explore the current state.
Spec Script Deals Over the Years (1991–2023)
Here are some striking statistics regarding spec script transactions from 1991 to 2023:
- 1991: 28
- 1992: 40
- 1993: 89
- 1994: 101
- 1995: 173
- 1996: 155
- 1997: 141
- 1998: 110
- 1999: 83
- 2000: 92
- 2001: 101
- 2002: 114
- 2003: 90
- 2004: 75
- 2005: 58
- 2006: 60
- 2007: 64
- 2008: 87
- 2009: 67
- 2010: 55
- 2011: 110
- 2012: 99
- 2013: 100
- 2014: 62
- 2015: 55
- 2016: 75
- 2017: 62
- 2018: 41
- 2019: 32
- 2020: 26
- 2021: 34
- 2022: 16
- 2023: 11
Note: These figures are compiled from trade reports and other reliable sources that track the spec market. Only verifiable deals are included. As previously mentioned, tracking these deals isn’t an exact science. A deal usually requires some press coverage, but the term “spec script” can be ambiguous.
In broad terms, a spec script is one written without a commission, relying solely on the writer's effort with hopes of selling it. This simplicity masks a complex reality:
- Some deals are informal agreements without financial backing.
- Others involve established writers who already have an understanding with a studio, so the project is virtually guaranteed before the script is finalized.
- Some scripts might have been in the works for years before being officially announced once production is approved.
- There are also option deals for minimal amounts, far from the typical six-figure sales we associate with spec scripts.
Although it’s impossible to pinpoint the exact number of spec script deals annually, tracking consistent sources allows for observing trends over time. Since 2016, there has been a notable decline. The 2023 data, which recorded only 11 deals, was likely skewed due to the five-month WGA strike. As we approach the end of Q1 2024, it appears there have been no new spec script deals thus far.
Why is the spec market struggling? Several factors contribute:
Contraction in Buyers
The acquisition of 20th Century Fox by Disney reduced the number of major studios to just five: Disney, Paramount, Sony, Universal, and Warner Bros. Many smaller studios have either closed down or merged.
Shift to Streaming
Most legacy studios have followed Netflix into the streaming space, with only Sony abstaining. However, many of these platforms are not yet profitable, leading companies like Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery into significant debt, thereby limiting their budget for acquiring new projects.
Risk Aversion
Studios are producing fewer films than in previous decades. For instance, Disney once released over 40 films annually, but now that number is often less than half. There’s a growing preference for established content—sequels, remakes, and adaptations—over original stories, which are seen as high-risk.
Demand for Adaptations
The current trend favors adaptations of best-selling books, as they come with a guaranteed audience. Even lesser-known titles can attract interest if they have a compelling concept.
Fear of Originality
Producers have become hesitant to invest in original narratives. As one producer put it, original stories are perceived as "untested," leading to a preference for projects that resemble existing works.
These interconnected factors have heavily influenced the state of the spec script market. However, there are signs of change:
New Generations Seeking Originality
Recent surveys indicate that 74% of Millennials and Gen Z prefer original content over franchises or remakes. This shift suggests a potential demand for new stories, indicating that studios may need to adapt their strategies.
Universal's Success
In 2023, Universal surpassed Disney as the highest-grossing studio. Unlike Disney, which has relied heavily on its major franchises, Universal has forged partnerships with filmmakers like Jordan Peele and Christopher Nolan, leading to the success of original films.
Changes at Disney
The departure of Sean Bailey as President of Walt Disney Motion Picture Studios and the appointment of David Greenbaum, known for supporting original projects, may signal a shift towards embracing new, creative scripts.
While these developments might hint at a resurgence for spec scripts, it’s crucial to remember the words of William Goldman: "Nobody knows anything."
The Value of a Spec Script
Despite the current market conditions, the value of a spec script extends beyond potential sales. For those unrepresented, writing spec scripts can be the best way to secure representation. A strong spec can open doors for meetings with producers and buyers, providing opportunities for future work.
A spec script is an asset that may not yield immediate results but could be invaluable down the line.
I recently interviewed one of my former students, Laura Stoltz, who wrote a script titled “Last Resort.” It was recognized on the 2023 Black List. The story revolves around a woman coping with grief at a luxurious resort aimed at helping guests end their lives, blending humor with heavy themes.
Laura was aware that her script might not sell but aimed to create a “voice piece” that showcased her unique style. Her success on the Black List has led to numerous meetings and opportunities.
In conclusion, while the state of the spec script market is challenging, it still holds potential for writers who focus on their craft. As Dan Halsted, my first agent, once said, "If you write a great script, we will find you." Concentrate on your writing, and opportunities will follow.
Chapter 2: Insights from Industry Professionals
In this video titled The Spec Script - 80 To 90% Of My Work Has Been Original Screenplays, Joe Eszterhas discusses the importance of originality in screenwriting and shares insights from his extensive career.
In another insightful interview, Interview with Professional Screenwriter Mark Sanderson, the challenges and strategies of navigating the screenwriting landscape are examined, offering valuable advice for aspiring writers.